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Crude oil crashes benefit India as a net importer — Nifty typically gains 3-5% in 1 month. Biggest winners: Paints, Tyres, Aviation, Chemicals. Biggest losers: ONGC, Oil India, Cairn. Fertilizer companies lose subsidy tailwind. Net benefit to India's CAD.
Nifty 1 Day
+1.5%
Nifty 3 Days
+2.0%
Nifty 1 Week
+3.5%
Nifty 1 Month
+8.0%
WTI crude futures went negative on April 20, 2020 — a historic first. India's crude import bill fell by $60B annualized. While ONGC/Oil India fell hard, downstream consumers of crude (paints, tyres, airlines, petrochemicals) got massive input cost relief.
Crude derivatives fall — input cost relief
Natural rubber and crude derivatives fall
Aviation fuel at historic lows — cost relief
WTI crude futures went negative on April 20, 2020 — a historic first. India's crude import bill fell by $60B annualized. While ONGC/Oil India fell hard, downstream consumers of crude (paints, tyres, airlines, petrochemicals) got massive input cost relief.
Historically, Asian Paints, MRF, IndiGo were among the strongest performers in the aftermath, based on real 1-week/1-month return data.
The Nifty 50 moved +3.5% in the following week and +8.0% over the following month.
Crude oil crashes benefit India as a net importer — Nifty typically gains 3-5% in 1 month. Biggest winners: Paints, Tyres, Aviation, Chemicals. Biggest losers: ONGC, Oil India, Cairn. Fertilizer companies lose subsidy tailwind. Net benefit to India's CAD.
Regime
bear
Repo Rate
4.4%
India VIX
45.0
Data Confidence
85%